gm.
couple stories plus a spotlight from us.
1. the fed just hiked rates for the first time in 3 years, unanimously.
on wednesday, the FOMC voted unanimously to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%. it's the first hike since 2023 and warsh's first real move as chair. even christopher waller, who publicly floated holding this month, voted with warsh. no dissents.
the dot plot (each FOMC member's forecast for year-end rates) signals more hikes coming. 12 of 18 FOMC members see one more hike this year, taking the year-end rate to 4.125%. 4 members want two more hikes. only 2 want none. the committee has shifted from "should we hike at all" to "how many more before we stop."
markets got the message before the meeting. the 10-year treasury yield hit a 19-year high heading in, around 4.97%. trump spent the morning threatening to "stop trading" with countries where the US runs a deficit unless the fed cuts. warsh ignored him. this hike signals that fighting inflation is officially back in charge of monetary policy through year-end. if you're waiting on a lower mortgage rate, car loan, or business line of credit, that timeline is now measured in quarters, not weeks.
2. anthropic's IPO is shaping up to be the biggest ever. nvidia is in for $10 billion.
new numbers on the anthropic IPO dropped last week. the plan: raise up to $100 billion at a $2 trillion valuation, priced before the november midterms. that valuation would top spacex's $1.77 trillion IPO in june as the largest ever, and the $100 billion raise would blow past saudi aramco's $29.4 billion (2019) as the largest capital raise in history.
the revenue growth behind the ask: anthropic's annualized revenue was around $9 billion at the end of 2025. by end of july 2026, it hit $65 billion. that's roughly 7x growth in 8 months. no company has scaled revenue at this size that fast, ever.
nvidia is in advanced talks to anchor the deal with a $10 billion investment. that would lock in its second major frontier lab position this year after the hugging face stake, putting anthropic on par with openai as a core nvidia ecosystem partner. the tension: anthropic's CEO dario amodei spent the last week publicly urging AI labs to slow down, while behind the scenes his company is preparing the largest capital raise in history to build faster.
3. higher spotlight: sports prediction markets are live (early access).
trade NFL, UFC, soccer, and college football on higher. what's on there this weekend:
NFL week 2: colts vs chiefs (SNF), commanders vs cowboys, eagles vs titans, plus the full sunday slate.
UFC 331 saturday in LA: flyweight title rematch (joshua van vs alexandre pantoja), plus tsarukyan vs ruffy.
soccer: real madrid vs atlético madrid sunday, PSG vs marseille.
NCAAF: LSU vs ole miss saturday.
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see you monday.
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not financial advice. aggregated community trends and commentary.