gm.
three stories since monday, plus two quick hits.
the 3
1. an ex-CIA official just pleaded guilty to $194 million in fraud. the FBI found 298 gold bars at his house.
on monday, former CIA officer david j. rush pleaded guilty to one count of wire fraud in a scheme that defrauded the US government out of roughly $194 million. rush forged government authorizations to release funds to his personal accounts, including a $100 million transfer from a government contract.
when the FBI raided his home in may, they found 298 gold bars worth about $46 million, roughly $2 million in cash, $117,000 in euros, and multiple luxury watches. rush faces up to 20 years in prison and will be sentenced january 28.
the wilder detail: per court documents, rush got into the CIA by lying on his job applications. he claimed to be a US air force test pilot school graduate and the director of test operations for a joint army/navy unit. he was never a pilot. he served as an information systems technician in the navy. the fake credentials got him a senior executive-level position and a top-secret security clearance. once inside, he created fictitious government entities (including a phony "special access program") to redirect federal funds into his own accounts.
the DOJ hasn't disclosed how long the scheme ran or whether anyone else was involved.
2. palmer luckey's empire expanded on two fronts this week.
on monday, anduril (luckey's defense company) announced a $6.6 billion shipyard outside baltimore with the US navy. anduril puts in $3.7 billion, the navy puts in $2.9 billion. the facility will produce parts for the navy's virginia-class submarines starting in 2030. about 3,100 jobs. the announcement came days after luckey was named to a pentagon future weapons task force.
separately, erebor (the digital bank luckey co-founded with joe lonsdale after SVB collapsed in 2023) just passed $7 billion in deposits, eight months after launching. erebor is reportedly in talks to raise $1.5 billion at an $8 billion pre-money valuation, which would make it the most valuable private bank in the US.
what's notable: erebor is holding roughly 90% of its assets in cash at other banks, with just $78 million in loans. regulators require it to keep its balance sheet highly liquid during its first three years, which is why the loan book is small. for now erebor looks more like a cash custodian for startups and crypto firms than a traditional lender.
3. four native american tribes just launched prediction markets with kalshi. hundreds of other tribes are suing to stop it.
on wednesday, four native american tribes (across california and oklahoma) launched prediction market apps powered by kalshi. this follows a similar deal in september with the tunica-biloxi tribe in louisiana (the first sovereign tribal nation to do this).
why tribes are doing this: casinos have been the primary source of economic revenue for many tribes for decades. prediction markets offer a new revenue stream that works online and reaches a different customer. the tribes own the customer-facing product. the underlying contracts live on kalshi's CFTC-approved marketplace.
why it's splitting indian country: hundreds of other tribes argue that kalshi and polymarket are illegally encroaching on their protected gaming rights. they're pushing in court to ban sports prediction markets, which make up over 80% of kalshi's business.
the stakes: if the kalshi-tribe partnership model holds up, prediction markets could become hard to legally challenge in most of the US (sovereign tribal territory provides a strong legal framework). if the opposing tribes win in court, the whole model gets challenged.
two more quick things
AI-generated video game mods are having a moment.
in the last week, viral videos have shown mario running around in elden ring (22.8M views on X), spider-man flying through gotham in arkham knight, tarkov inside skyrim, and skate 3 trickshots in modern warfare 2. the IP implications are messy. mario in elden ring puts nintendo's most protected character inside bandai namco's game. spider-man in arkham mashes marvel and DC. the skate/MW2/minecraft stack covers EA, activision, and microsoft. none of this has been formally challenged yet, but nintendo in particular has a famously aggressive legal team.
tom cruise's new movie is 2026's biggest box office bomb.
"digger," directed by alejandro gonzález iñárritu and starring tom cruise as an oil tycoon, opened october 2 and made $8 million domestically (cruise's lowest opening in 19 years) plus $12 million overseas. budget: $160 million. c+ cinemascore from audiences.
see you monday.
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